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UK Hub Programme Model

Client:

UGC Growth Model (2021)

Study objectives:

• Scope out, design and develop the UGC Growth Model to HMT Green Book standards.
• Ensure the model can be easily updated and that impacts can be readily reported widely.
• Populate the model with current evidence to demonstrate project and programme level Value for Money returns across 20 schemes.

Working with Arcadis, we designed and developed the Urban Growth Company (UGC) Growth Model as an impact assessment toolkit that demonstrates the economic impact and Value for Money returns achievable through £1 billion of infrastructure investment at UK Central, one of Europe’s largest growth opportunities located in Solihull to the south of Birmingham.

We initially produced a scoping report setting out the core principles, impact inclusions and evidence requirements for the model. We then designed and developed the architecture for the comprehensive impact model, with design development focussed on ensuring flexibility with simple ongoing adjustment and periodic updating.

The model itself reports on gross and net programme and project level impacts including:

• Direct and Wider Commercial and residential Land Value Uplift;
• Labour Supply impacts;
• Amenity impacts;
• Health impacts; and,
• Construction and Longer-term Employment and GVA returns.

As the model will be used over a number of years, we developed a simple function to update price and forecasting years to ensure the model can express impacts in current year present value terms. We also consulted with local partners and Central Government throughout to shape the model and validate evidence.

Outputs from the model will inform the business cases for 20 projects with funding sought from the Department for Transport and the Combined Authority.

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