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Economics
Barnsley Alhambra Economic Case
Thrive Economics were commissioned by Barnsley Metropolitan Borough Council (BMBC) to prepare the economic case for major planned investment in the acquisition and re-purposing of the Alhambra Shopping Centre in Barnsley Town Centre.
The Council were preparing the OBC submission to South Yorkshire MCA (SYMCA) and in line with the MCAs requirements, the OBC needed to include a robust economic case that considered the economic benefits of three possible with funding options, set against the likely no investment counterfactual scenario. The counterfactual scenario itself would see a continued significant worsening of Shopping Centre performance, ultimately leading to its potential future closure.
Working closely with Council officers and SYMCA, we confirmed the potential scenarios for inclusion, including the Preferred redevelopment option for repurposing a significant proportion of the centre for health and wellbeing purposes. Two further viable alternative options were also developed and included within the appraisal.
Modelling of gross and net Land Value Uplift (LVU) and employment-related FTE job and GVA outcomes alongside an assessment of Distributional Impacts was then completed in each option. In practice, the case was largely premised on the safeguarding over 1,000 existing FTE jobs locally.
Further modelling of longer-term net economic costs (capital and revenue/operational) then enabled a full assessment of Value for Money (VfM) returns to be completed for each funding option, with VfM expressed in Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) terms.
A full account of non-monetised wider impacts was also included, alongside important sensitivity tests to reflect inevitable uncertainties in the central case economic impact modelling.
Having submitted the OBC, Thrive Economics then assisted with the post-submission appraisal clarifications process. The project has since received approval from SYMCA and has progressed to Full Business Case (FBC) stage.
The Council were preparing the OBC submission to South Yorkshire MCA (SYMCA) and in line with the MCAs requirements, the OBC needed to include a robust economic case that considered the economic benefits of three possible with funding options, set against the likely no investment counterfactual scenario. The counterfactual scenario itself would see a continued significant worsening of Shopping Centre performance, ultimately leading to its potential future closure.
Working closely with Council officers and SYMCA, we confirmed the potential scenarios for inclusion, including the Preferred redevelopment option for repurposing a significant proportion of the centre for health and wellbeing purposes. Two further viable alternative options were also developed and included within the appraisal.
Modelling of gross and net Land Value Uplift (LVU) and employment-related FTE job and GVA outcomes alongside an assessment of Distributional Impacts was then completed in each option. In practice, the case was largely premised on the safeguarding over 1,000 existing FTE jobs locally.
Further modelling of longer-term net economic costs (capital and revenue/operational) then enabled a full assessment of Value for Money (VfM) returns to be completed for each funding option, with VfM expressed in Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) terms.
A full account of non-monetised wider impacts was also included, alongside important sensitivity tests to reflect inevitable uncertainties in the central case economic impact modelling.
Having submitted the OBC, Thrive Economics then assisted with the post-submission appraisal clarifications process. The project has since received approval from SYMCA and has progressed to Full Business Case (FBC) stage.
Ryedale Economic Assessment
We produced a Baseline Economic Assessment of the relative performance of Ryedale’s economy set in the context of wider performance trends across North Yorkshire and England. Alongside reporting on pertinent district-wide trends, it also included analysis of sub-area performance across the four district towns – Malton/Norton, Pickering, Helmsley and Kirkbymoorside.
Underpinning the summary Assessment Report was a more detailed Economic Indicator Database, compiled to provide a catalogue of time-series performance indicators across a range of socio-economic strands, broadly to a ‘people, business, place’ theme. This included detailed analysis of population change, labour market performance, labour flows, occupations, skills, business stocks and business churn rates, GVA and earnings, deprivation, employment land supply and housing and digital performance.
The research also included detailed sectoral analysis to identify five bespoke priority sectors for the district. Those prioritised sectors comprised Land Industries, Production and Engineering, Bio-Agritech, the Visitor and Creative Economy and Business and Digital Services. Once defined and agreed with the Council, we carried out more detailed research into each sectoral priority to help identify sub-sector strengths, local assets and sector dynamics to help strengthen the evidence base. The Baseline Economic Assessment Report was produced to inform the production of the Ryedale Economic Strategy refresh and the report concluded with our suggested recommendations for potential Strategy themes and thoughts on possible measures of success which could be carried forward within the Strategy.
Underpinning the summary Assessment Report was a more detailed Economic Indicator Database, compiled to provide a catalogue of time-series performance indicators across a range of socio-economic strands, broadly to a ‘people, business, place’ theme. This included detailed analysis of population change, labour market performance, labour flows, occupations, skills, business stocks and business churn rates, GVA and earnings, deprivation, employment land supply and housing and digital performance.
The research also included detailed sectoral analysis to identify five bespoke priority sectors for the district. Those prioritised sectors comprised Land Industries, Production and Engineering, Bio-Agritech, the Visitor and Creative Economy and Business and Digital Services. Once defined and agreed with the Council, we carried out more detailed research into each sectoral priority to help identify sub-sector strengths, local assets and sector dynamics to help strengthen the evidence base. The Baseline Economic Assessment Report was produced to inform the production of the Ryedale Economic Strategy refresh and the report concluded with our suggested recommendations for potential Strategy themes and thoughts on possible measures of success which could be carried forward within the Strategy.
Leeds Convention Centre Peer Review
We were commissioned to carry out an independent peer review of an existing impact
assessment report that sought to estimate the levels of trade diversion / displacement
that could be witnessed from Harrogate Convention Centre and Harrogate Town Centre
from the delivery of a new convention centre in nearby Leeds.
The initial Peer Review report focused on considering the levels of potential demand for
future conferencing and events locally, alongside considering the extent to which two
venues would compete and re-assessing the scale and significance of Harrogate town
Centre’s economy.
The report then considered the validity of the high-low scenarios set out in the economic
impact assessment report and provided a revised view on impacts and significance,
thereby presenting an independent assessed of likely trade diversion.
The Peer Review report findings fed into the decision-making over planning approval for
the new conference centre.
assessment report that sought to estimate the levels of trade diversion / displacement
that could be witnessed from Harrogate Convention Centre and Harrogate Town Centre
from the delivery of a new convention centre in nearby Leeds.
The initial Peer Review report focused on considering the levels of potential demand for
future conferencing and events locally, alongside considering the extent to which two
venues would compete and re-assessing the scale and significance of Harrogate town
Centre’s economy.
The report then considered the validity of the high-low scenarios set out in the economic
impact assessment report and provided a revised view on impacts and significance,
thereby presenting an independent assessed of likely trade diversion.
The Peer Review report findings fed into the decision-making over planning approval for
the new conference centre.
North East Lincolnshire Investment Zone
We were commissioned to assist the Council with its Expression of Interest return to Central Government for establishing a network of new Investment Zones in the local area.
The Council had identified a list of potential sites, with 14 selected sites carried forward for economic assessment.
The economic impact assessment work considered the potential Employment, GVA and Land Value Uplift returns possible on each selected site, and working closely with Council officers, we collated commercial and housing site evidence to:
• Set out the overall scale of development outcomes and economic returns possible through the delivery of the 14 sites
• Consider the counterfactual scenario and with IZ trajectories
• Consider gross and net local level impacts
Subsequent grouping of sites was then completed to set out clear Investment Zones, and reporting of impact results for each site then helped to completed North East Lincolnshire’s Expression of Interest return to Government.
The Council had identified a list of potential sites, with 14 selected sites carried forward for economic assessment.
The economic impact assessment work considered the potential Employment, GVA and Land Value Uplift returns possible on each selected site, and working closely with Council officers, we collated commercial and housing site evidence to:
• Set out the overall scale of development outcomes and economic returns possible through the delivery of the 14 sites
• Consider the counterfactual scenario and with IZ trajectories
• Consider gross and net local level impacts
Subsequent grouping of sites was then completed to set out clear Investment Zones, and reporting of impact results for each site then helped to completed North East Lincolnshire’s Expression of Interest return to Government.
Observer Building, Hastings
We completed a HM Treasury Green Book compliant economic case for investment to bring the Observer Building in Hastings back into commercial use.
The impact assessment considered the gross and net impacts that could be achieved through the delivery of the Preferred Option investment, set against the likely counterfactual position. We considered a range of accepted impact strands including:
• Land Value Uplift Returns
• Labour Supply Impacts
• Distributional Impacts
• Supporting Construction and Longer-term Employment and GVA impacts
We inputted to various successful economic case submissions and the building has since received a mix of Growth Deal and Growing Places Fund grant and loan funding, which has enabled the building to be restored to its former glory.
Led by a social enterprise, the iconic restored building is now serving to maximum social impact, by providing life-changing employment, enterprise support, training and social networking opportunities, alongside some new housing provision.
The impact assessment considered the gross and net impacts that could be achieved through the delivery of the Preferred Option investment, set against the likely counterfactual position. We considered a range of accepted impact strands including:
• Land Value Uplift Returns
• Labour Supply Impacts
• Distributional Impacts
• Supporting Construction and Longer-term Employment and GVA impacts
We inputted to various successful economic case submissions and the building has since received a mix of Growth Deal and Growing Places Fund grant and loan funding, which has enabled the building to be restored to its former glory.
Led by a social enterprise, the iconic restored building is now serving to maximum social impact, by providing life-changing employment, enterprise support, training and social networking opportunities, alongside some new housing provision.
UK Hub Programme Model
Working with Arcadis, we designed and developed the Urban Growth Company (UGC) Growth Model as an impact assessment toolkit that demonstrates the economic impact and Value for Money returns achievable through £1 billion of infrastructure investment at UK Central, one of Europe’s largest growth opportunities located in Solihull to the south of Birmingham.
We initially produced a scoping report setting out the core principles, impact inclusions and evidence requirements for the model. We then designed and developed the architecture for the comprehensive impact model, with design development focussed on ensuring flexibility with simple ongoing adjustment and periodic updating.
The model itself reports on gross and net programme and project level impacts including:
• Direct and Wider Commercial and residential Land Value Uplift;
• Labour Supply impacts;
• Amenity impacts;
• Health impacts; and,
• Construction and Longer-term Employment and GVA returns.
As the model will be used over a number of years, we developed a simple function to update price and forecasting years to ensure the model can express impacts in current year present value terms. We also consulted with local partners and Central Government throughout to shape the model and validate evidence.
Outputs from the model will inform the business cases for 20 projects with funding sought from the Department for Transport and the Combined Authority.
We initially produced a scoping report setting out the core principles, impact inclusions and evidence requirements for the model. We then designed and developed the architecture for the comprehensive impact model, with design development focussed on ensuring flexibility with simple ongoing adjustment and periodic updating.
The model itself reports on gross and net programme and project level impacts including:
• Direct and Wider Commercial and residential Land Value Uplift;
• Labour Supply impacts;
• Amenity impacts;
• Health impacts; and,
• Construction and Longer-term Employment and GVA returns.
As the model will be used over a number of years, we developed a simple function to update price and forecasting years to ensure the model can express impacts in current year present value terms. We also consulted with local partners and Central Government throughout to shape the model and validate evidence.
Outputs from the model will inform the business cases for 20 projects with funding sought from the Department for Transport and the Combined Authority.
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